Facebook SDK

Thursday, 2 December 2010

Predictions for other distances

Since I started running at parkrun events in April 2010 I have not run in any other events. All my training has been aimed totally at improving at parkrun. Excluding the Coventry Fun Run which I have only just remembered (I think I came 5th in that actually).

In the past I have run the odd event and I really do mean the odd event. I did the Great North Run in 2004, the Manchester Great Run in 2007 and the Coventry Half Marathon in 2009. Other than that its just been a handful of Coventry Fun Runs prior to parkrun. As I have said before, I have always considered myself a footballer and never a runner. Until now that is, thank you parkrun!

Recently I have been wondering how I would do at distances other than the parkrun 5km. I have been running so regularly over the last 7 or so months that my feeling is that I must be fitter (for running) than I ever have been before. I therefore suspect that I should be able to get some new PBs at other distances.

Today I decided to try and find some method for predicting times at other distances, based on my current parkrun PB. A quick google search lead me to this: RunnersWorld calculator

I entered my parkrun PB of 18:14 into the calculator and came up with the following predictions:
10km: 38:00 (significantly faster than my Great Manchester Run 10km PB of 39:58).
Half Marathon: 1:23:47 (nearly 10 minutes faster than my Coventry Half Marathon PB of 1:33:37).

Somehow I don't think I'll ever do that half marathon time. I'm not sure my body is up to a half marathon and surely not pushing it to that degree. That prediction would require running a 6:23 per mile pace. That sounds too fast for me.

But I think the 10km time of 38 minutes sounds like a realistic target. Perhaps it might be nice to have another target other than parkrun. Don't get me wrong, parkrun will still be my main focus, but a run or two at other distances would be a good challenge for next year I think. I think I'll blog my targets for next year towards the end of the month.

Incidentally, I didn't bother looking at the prediction for a marathon time. That's a lie actually. I did look, but it is so meaningless to me, as I could never consider doing a marathon with my dodgy hips (another blog topic to cover). The prediction was 2:54:42, which is totally inaccurate as it doesn't have a figure in the days column!

Even for parkrun training I tend to run around the 10km mark, so it is not an unfamiliar distance to me and feels about my ideal distance for any run. So with those targets in mind I better get training. Here's hoping the paths are clear of snow and ice for a fast freedom run tomorrow. Although, with the weekly parkrun event on Saturday is it wise to push my freedom run tomorrow? Probably not. Shame, as it feels like its been ages since I really pushed myself. I'm sure Andy will be there to keep my aims for tomorrow relatively sensible.


  1. 'sup! Fresh from the invigorating cross-country thingy at Coombe Abbey, where I outstripped several penguins, I'm starting to plan races for the year ahead. Northbrook do a 10k round Allesley which was really good last year - you might want to give that some thought.

    The Dan McKeown race time predicty algothingy (patent pending) is available at:


    Just to give you the edited highlights, your current 5k time allows you to expect around 3h 10 for the marathon, 41 mins for the 10k. Your best distance may be the mile: according to my algothingy, you should be able to go under two and a half minutes, which would make you the first athlete to do so in the history of the world.

    As I acknowledged in my post, my algothingy isn't really all that accurate.

  2. Hi Dan, how did the Coombe cross-country go?

    Allesley 10km sounds ideal. I'll look into that one.

    London 2012 here I come! I never knew I was such a good miler!


I would love to hear what you think.